Week 9 Next Gen Stats best value fantasy matchups

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Week 9 Next  Taylor Decker Jersey Gen Stats best value fantasy matchups   Published: Nov 03, 2016 at 12:16 PM           Matt Harmon                          Exploiting matchups is key in fantasy and can help us unearth sleepers, value plays and also alert us to when we should fade or lower expectations for more establish studs. There are a number of statistics and data-based tools to helps us decipher which matchups to exploit and which to avoid, and one of which is the NFL's package -- not just the fancy speed numbers you see on television.     Here we'll look where cornerbacks and wide receivers line up, which defenses are particularly susceptible to which player packages and so much more in order to find value with our fantasy players. As the season goes along we'll have even more data to use and a better understanding of the . Here are the top matchups that could bring value in Week 9.     Jordy Nelson vs. Colts secondary     After much weeping and gnashing of teeth at the thought of 's diminished rest of season outlook after a one-catch game las Thursday night, the veteran bounced back nicely in Week 8.      The biggest key to his succe s was Green Bay being flexible with his alignment. With out of the lineup, the asked Nelson to play a season-high 63 percent of his snaps from the slot. Nelson got free for his biggest play of the season, a 58-yarder that came from when he lined up in the slot:    Jordy Nelson's route chart from Week 8. Note the big play out of the slot, his longest catch of the year.  Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB)      Nelson has had i sues this season separating from outside coverage, ranking 37th out of 41 receivers in yards of separation at target (1.96) among receivers with 30-plus targets outside. He has not been winning contested catches like he once did either, with just a 37.5 percent catch rate when he has Herman Moore Jersey  le s than a yard of separation.         However, Nelson's separation does increase when he moves into the slot. On his 18 targets from the slot Nelson averages 2.26 yards of separation from the nearest defender. That's still not a great score, as it ranks 42nd out of 44 receivers who have 15 or more targets from the slot this year. Yet, at least it is an improvement.      As currently constructed, the need to be a spread offense. They took that approach in Week 8 running four or five wide receivers on 53.3 percent of their plays run against Atlanta. It was no coincidence that the result brought about ' best game of the season. Four different receivers caught a touchdown and five caught multiple pa ses.      If the continue to use this package, it would allow Nelson to play the majority of his snaps from the slot, which might be where he's best suited at this point in his career. A similar move has preserved 's statistical dominance as he ages, and Nelson is at a similar career arc. The best offensive package is likely with four wide receivers and the positioning as follows:     Left wide: Davante Adams Slot 1: Jordy Neslon Slot 2: Randall Cobb Right wide: Janis/Allison/Davis rotation Backfield: Ty Montgomery     Without a true experienced running back healthy and on the roster, Green Bay could manufacture a type of run game with Montgomery in the backfield as they did in Weeks 6 and 7 in a . He could also flex out into the slot to give Green Bay five receivers, or alternate with Cobb in the backfield.     If the move Nelson to more of a slot role or he just has to play there if Cobb is out again, he draws a good matchup with the nickel defense. Indianapolis has only been targeted in the slot on average 10.6 times per game, but still give up 74.5 yards per game to interior receivers. Charlie Taumoepeau Jersey      Sam Bradford vs. Detroit's front seven        We saw the start to unravel on Monday Night Football when the division-rival startlingly had their way with them. The biggest i sue was Minnesota's inability to deal with pre sure. The team's pa s protection might be so poor it costs them several wins.     In his first four starts owned a 104.2 pa ser rating against the blitz, showing an unprecedented ability to throw from the pocket compared to the rest of his career. In recent weeks, the offensive line has deteriorated with injuries. They are starting at left tackle, who has not been a viable NFL player in about three years. It's likely no coincidence that Bradford's pa ser rating against the blitz dipped to 54.5 the last two weeks.      The rank fifth in highest blitz percentage on opposing pa s plays with 33.7 percent, but that hasn't helped their leaky defense. The allow a 73.6 completion rate, which is unspeakably bad here at the mid-point of the season. No other team allows a completion rate higher than 69 percent.      One of the reasons for the defensive ineptitude is they have been mi sing the presence of their best defensive player, pa s rusher . The fourth-year defensive end broke out in a big way with 14.5 sacks in 2015 after two solid years in the NFL. Unfortunately, he suffered an injury after just two snaps in Week 2 and mi sed multiple games after that. He returned to a part-time role in Weeks 6 and 7, playing just 55 and 56 percent of the snaps. The good news for the is that he may finally be close to all the way back. Ansah played 75 percent of the team snaps in Week 8, which is much more in line with his typical workload (71 percent in Week 1).      Make no mistake, Ansah is a difference-maker when healthy. Even in limited work this season, he's one of the better performers in Next Gen Stats' new pre sure metric -- average distance to quarterbacks at the time the ball is pa sed or when the quarterback is sacked. Ansah's 4.67 average distance ranks 21st in the NFL among defensive ends.      If Ansah comes after Bradford acro s from 's side of the line, or even against on the right, the will have a mismatch. This should be Ansah's breakout game for 2016, where he's yet to record a sack. Anyone projecting Bradford for a solid game in Week 9 might want to reconsider knowing this.      Amari Cooper vs. Broncos cornerbacks        Coming off a dominant game against the in Week 9, faces a much tougher task in the Denver secondary. might mi s  Jeff Okudah Jersey another game but the other corners are more than capable of limiting top wideouts.      We know that tends to do most of his damage on the left side of the field. Cooper takes 56 percent of his snaps from wide left, and has over half of his receiving yards on receptions when lined up at that position:    Amari Cooper's route chart from Weeks 5 and 6  Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB)       corner is well-known for his ability to cover both outside and slot receivers, a tougher task than many give it proper credit for. When he is not covering the slot, he's typically playing right corner. Harris lined up pre-snap on the wide right side of the defense 45.4 percent of his snaps this season, the most of any other position.     Harris and Cooper have a history from their meeting last year, the and Detroit Lions Men Jersey  squared off twice in Cooper's rookie season. Harris covered him on seven pa s plays in the first contest, Cooper never saw a pa s come his way. The second game was Cooper's worst statiscial outing of his career, where he was held without a catch on eight targets. Harris covered him on six pa s plays. sent two pa ses Cooper's way in that game, neither of which were completed.      The next catch Cooper gets on will be his first. Expect the two to square off for the majority of Cooper's routes on Sunday. The 2015 fourth overall pick has been on fire for much of the season, but the team has been willing to go elsewhere when the matchup with Cooper just isn't there, as evidenced by his outing facing 's shadow coverage:    Jalen Ramsey vs. Amari Cooper today via :26 pa s plays1 target1 catch4 yards83.3 Rating Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB)      Of course, Cooper is so talented he could still take this secondary over. We'll know a lot more about where Cooper sits on the pantheon of receivers after this g
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